The Narrative Flips Overnight: India Becomes the Safest Haven Amid Global Uncertainty
Kranthi Bathini, Equity Strategist at WealthMills Securities, comments on the current market scenario, noting that the narrative has flipped overnight from selling emerging markets to India being the safest haven amid global uncertainty.
Tata Technologies: A Case Study
Tata Technologies saw a significant drop of over 6% today after TPG Rise Climate offloaded shares worth 1.6 crore. The stock had a euphoric IPO but has since corrected to around 664, even dipping to 595 at one point. Fundamentally, the company has not shown notable earnings improvement post-IPO. The recent block deal is neutral, as these funds have been invested for a long time and are now exiting. While the business model remains strong, investors should wait for earnings traction before making fresh entries. For now, it’s better to stay on the sidelines and monitor the company’s performance.
Reliance Industries: Still a Buy?
Reliance delivered better-than-expected Q4 numbers, and shares have already climbed 12% in 2025. The company’s diversified model remains robust, and brokerages see a further 15% upside. Long-term prospects are intact due to past capex now showing returns. However, the oil-to-chemical (OTC) segment remains in consolidation, and green energy ventures haven’t generated strong revenues yet. Existing investors can hold, while new investors should wait for dips.
Gensol Engineering: From Hero to Headache
Gensol has crashed from over 700 to 81 since January amid ED raids and legal troubles tied to its EV cab arm, BluSmart. The company was once the poster child of India’s green energy push and EV ambition. Retail euphoria and media hype drove prices up, but the fall has been drastic over 80-90% in a few months. Investors got caught in the greed and fear cycle. The company’s fundamentals didn’t support its valuation, and the stock is hitting lower circuits daily, leaving no exit route. My advice: always assess companies based on consistent earnings, cash flow quality, and management credibility, not just media buzz. At this stage, just observe. Exit if there’s a bounce or positive trigger.
Q4 Earnings Preview: Ambuja, Bajaj Twins, BPCL, and Trent
- Ambuja Cements: Currently in consolidation. Given the government’s infra push, the outlook is positive. The stock is attractively valued. We expect decent Q4 numbers, and existing investors should hold.
- Bajaj Finance and Finserv: Financials have led the Nifty rally, with Bank Nifty at record highs. Bajaj Finance and Finserv are expected to post solid numbers. We are optimistic about their Q4 performance.
- BPCL: Crude is hovering near $60, which is favourable for oil marketing companies. We remain optimistic on BPCL for the medium to long term. Trent has had a stellar rally, but Q4 may remain strong due to robust consumption trends, and valuations are stretched. It’s priced to perfection, so one must be cautious.
- Trent: Trent has had a stellar rally, but Q4 may remain strong due to robust consumption trends, and valuations are stretched. It’s priced to perfection, so one must be cautious.
Sector & Market Outlook
Despite global concerns and geopolitical tensions, markets are rallying, thanks to strong FPI inflowsover 40,000 crore recently. Sector-wise, banking and financials remain attractive for long-term bets. IT is a cautious buygood for long-term investors but not for short-term trades due to global uncertainties. Defence stocks are buzzing due to strong order visibility. Infrastructure, engineering, and construction remain strong plays in India’s domestic growth story.
Market Outlook
As long as Nifty holds above 24,000, we are in safe territory. However, geopolitical developments must be tracked closely. The global narrative keeps shiftingfrom "buy US, sell emerging markets" in January to "India is the safest bet" today. Foreign investors, including many I met recently in Dubai, were initially favouring China, but sentiment has swung back to India. That shows how quickly narratives can change. So stay informed and watch for clarity on global tensions by the weekend.
Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts/brokerages do not represent the views of Economic Times.
Reference : https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert-view/tata-tech-reliance-gensol-and-sector-watch-kranthi-bathinis-2025-market-outlook/articleshow/120788113.cms
