Travel Industry in the United States: A Year of Uncertainty
The travel industry in the United States was expected to see strong growth this year, but the summer travel season has instead brought uncertainty. Canadian travel to the United States has fallen by 15.2% compared to April of last year, and airlines have reduced fares in response to softening demand. Marriott, Hyatt, and Hilton have all lowered their revenue outlook, while Airbnb and Expedia have downgraded their expectations for booking and revenue growth.
Political and economic confusion, particularly due to the Trump administration’s "America First" agenda, is causing both domestic and international tourists to reconsider their plans. Foreigners are canceling trips in response to threats of steep tariffs on U.S. trade partners, polarizing rhetoric, and an immigration crackdown that has resulted in tourists being detained at the U.S. border. American travelers are cutting back over fears of a recession and job insecurity.
The tourism industry projects a drop in international visitors that will cost the United States $12.5 billion in travel spending this year, falling to less than $169 billion from $181 billion in 2024. This is a 22.5% decline from the prepandemic peak reached in 2019 and sets the United States apart as the only country among the 184 analyzed that is forecast to see an international visitor drop in 2025.
The European Travel Commission, which represents tourism organizations across the continent, is bracing for a dip in American travelers. Major U.S. airlines, including Alaska, Southwest, Delta, and JetBlue, have all recently pulled their 2025 forecasts, citing economic uncertainty. United is lowering international and domestic capacity and axing routes, but said that the ebb in demand has partly been offset by the strength of premium cabin bookings, which have continued to rise.
Luxury travel remains strong, with summer demand up 23% for the U.S. as the number one destination. The United States remains a highly desirable destination, with unique experiences and attractions that will remain attractive for long after this presidency is over.
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