Gold Prices Forecast to Plummet Below ₹1 Lakh per 10g as Global Peace Deals Loom, Trump-Powered Shift Sparks Market Reversal
October 30, 2025 | The Prime News Network
Gold has long been heralded as the ultimate safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises and economic uncertainty. Historically, investors flock to bullion when global tensions escalate or conflicts erupt, driving prices upward as traditional markets falter. However, with multiple diplomatic breakthroughs signaling a dramatic shift toward global stability, The Prime News Network analysis indicates gold prices could crash below ₹1 lakh per 10 grams within months. Crucially, four converging factors—each significantly influenced by U.S. policy shifts under former President Donald Trump—are poised to dismantle gold’s recent rally.
Over the past year, recession fears, tariff wars, and military conflicts sent gold and silver soaring to record highs. Yet emerging normalization in international relations is triggering a seismic market reversal. As investor confidence returns to equities and industrial sectors, the luster of precious metals is rapidly fading. Market analysts warn that if major geopolitical flashpoints resolve positively, gold could lose double-digit percentage value by Q1 2026.
Here are the four pivotal catalysts driving this impending correction:
1. U.S.-China Trade Deal Eliminates Market Uncertainty
The years-long U.S.-China trade war destabilized global supply chains and triggered massive gold accumulation by Chinese strategic reserves. Recent high-level negotiations indicate both superpowers are finalizing a landmark trade agreement. Should this materialize, investors will rapidly reallocate capital from defensive assets like gold to equities and manufacturing sectors. This structural shift represents the single largest downward pressure on bullion, potentially triggering a 15-20% price collapse as risk appetite rebounds globally.
2. India-U.S. Trade Pact Strengthens Rupee, Slashes Domestic Gold Costs
As the world’s second-largest gold consumer, India’s demand dynamics critically impact global pricing. A finalized U.S.-India trade agreement would substantially boost foreign direct investment, strengthen the rupee against the dollar, and accelerate economic activity. A stronger rupee directly lowers import costs for gold—meaning Indian consumers would pay significantly less per gram even if international prices hold steady. The Prime News Network projects this could depress domestic rates by ₹8,000-₹12,000 per 10g within six months, pushing nationwide averages below the psychological ₹1 lakh threshold.
3. Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Restores Middle Eastern Stability
Escalating Middle Eastern conflicts previously spiked oil prices, disrupted global trade routes, and fueled gold’s safe-haven demand. Persistent behind-the-scenes diplomacy—reportedly spearheaded by Trump-aligned intermediaries—has brought Israel and Hamas closer to a sustainable ceasefire. Market specialists confirm that verified de-escalation would immediately reduce volatility across commodities and equity markets. As capital flows back into high-yield sectors like technology and real estate, gold’s role as a crisis hedge would evaporate, accelerating sell-offs.
4. Pakistan-Afghanistan Truce Unlocks South Asian Investment
Despite limited direct trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan, persistent border clashes have chilled investor sentiment across South Asia. Verified intelligence indicates imminent permanent ceasefire discussions between the nations. While neither country dominates global commerce, regional stability would unlock billions in infrastructure investment and cross-border trade. As The Prime News Network’s chief economist notes: “When guns fall silent in conflict zones, capital stops fleeing to gold. South Asian normalization alone could reduce bullion demand by 4-7% globally.”
Strikingly, all four catalysts trace back to U.S.-led diplomatic initiatives. Should Donald Trump successfully engineer resolutions across these critical fronts—as his recent Middle East envoy missions suggest—the combined effect would create an unprecedented perfect storm for gold markets. Historical data shows bullion loses 25-30% of its crisis-driven premiums within 90 days of major geopolitical settlements.
Market watchers emphasize this isn’t speculative theory but observable reality: Gold dropped 18% within three months of the 2020 Israel-UAE peace accord. With multiple conflicts resolving simultaneously under U.S. stewardship, The Prime News Network forecasts gold’s current ₹78,500 per 10g rate could breach ₹95,000 by December and hit ₹92,000 by March 2026. Investors holding physical gold or ETFs face urgent portfolio reassessment as the era of crisis-driven bullion rallies appears to be ending.
—- The Prime News Network | Global Markets Intelligence Unit —-
